Wholesale electricity futures fell significantly across New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia through the first half of 2026, creating more favourable market conditions for businesses reviewing their energy contracts.
ASX Energy futures data showed prices had moved lower across all 4 mainland National Electricity Market regions from the elevated levels seen earlier in the year.
For businesses approaching a contract renewal, this shift presented an opportunity to review available rates and see whether lower wholesale market conditions were flowing through to more competitive retail offers.
New South Wales
New South Wales experienced a significant fall in wholesale futures pricing from its late March highs.
By 11 June, Q2 2026 Base futures had settled at $81.75/MWh, while the 2027 calendar year strip was sitting at $86.68/MWh. The 2027 price was approximately 14% to 17% lower than the levels recorded around late March.
For NSW businesses approaching renewal, lower futures pricing can create more favourable conditions when retailers price future electricity contracts.
Victoria
Victoria recorded some of the largest declines across the 4 states.
Q4 2026 Base futures had fallen to $42.00/MWh, while the 2027 calendar year strip was sitting at $65.42/MWh, approximately 19% to 24% below its late March peak.
The report attributed Victoria’s movement to factors including strong renewable generation, increased battery dispatch and reduced gas and coal generation.
Queensland
Queensland also saw wholesale futures pricing move lower across the curve.
By 11 June, the 2027 calendar year strip was sitting at $74.53/MWh, around 13% to 17% lower than its late March peak. Q2 and Q3 2026 futures had fallen by approximately 17% to 22%.
Queensland can experience greater pricing pressure during periods of high summer electricity demand, making changes in the forward market particularly relevant for businesses with significant cooling or operational loads.
South Australia
South Australia also experienced a considerable fall in futures pricing.
Q4 2026 Base futures had dropped to $51.70/MWh, around 31% to 35% below late March levels, while the 2027 calendar year strip was sitting at $80.82/MWh, approximately 15% to 20% lower.
South Australia has historically experienced significant wholesale price volatility, meaning periods of softer forward pricing can be particularly important for businesses considering when to secure their next energy contract.
What does lower futures pricing mean for businesses?
Wholesale electricity futures are one of the factors that influence the rates retailers can offer when pricing future energy contracts.
When the forward wholesale market falls, retailers may be able to offer businesses more competitive contract rates than they could when wholesale pricing was higher.
That does not mean a business electricity bill will fall by the same percentage. Retail rates are influenced by a range of other factors, including network charges, environmental costs, the business's electricity usage and the structure of the contract.
However, a significant fall in the underlying wholesale market can make it worthwhile to review current retailer offers.
Choice Energy’s reviews during this period identified an average saving of 19.41%, with savings available for 80% of the businesses reviewed.
Why timing matters
Energy markets can change quickly.
Seasonal electricity demand, movements in global energy markets and changes to available supply can all influence futures pricing.
Businesses also do not necessarily need to wait until their current contract is about to expire before reviewing future pricing.
Going to market earlier can give a business more time to understand retailer options and decide whether current conditions present an opportunity to secure a competitive rate.
Review your business energy contract
If your business has an upcoming electricity contract renewal, reviewing the market can help you understand whether more competitive rates are currently available.
Choice Energy can review your existing agreement, electricity usage and upcoming contract expiry and seek competitive options from multiple energy retailers.
Market pricing referenced in this article is based on ASX Energy futures data as at 11 June 2026. Futures prices can change and past market movements are not indicative of future pricing.
