Queensland
Queensland wholesale electricity prices softened further throughout April and into May, with ASX Energy forward markets continuing to trend downward across FY27 pricing. A key driver behind the easing in wholesale pricing has been the continued growth in renewable generation and improved battery storage participation, which has helped smooth out evening peak demand periods and reduce the frequency of extreme pricing events.
High solar output has also continued to contribute to lower daytime spot prices across the region, placing downward pressure on average wholesale outcomes compared to previous years. While Queensland remains exposed to volatility during periods of high demand and lower renewable output, current market conditions are materially more favourable than those experienced throughout much of 2024 and early 2025.
With wholesale contract pricing now sitting well below prior highs, businesses should consider whether current market conditions present an opportunity to review procurement strategies before winter demand risks place renewed pressure on pricing.
New South Wales
NSW wholesale electricity prices also eased through April and early May, with ASX Energy forward markets softening materially compared to recent quarters. Increased renewable generation across the grid, combined with growing battery storage capability, has helped reduce pressure during traditional evening peak demand periods and improve overall market stability.
At the same time, strong renewable output has continued to contribute to softer daytime spot pricing outcomes, reducing average wholesale electricity costs across the state. While NSW still carries long-term concerns surrounding ageing generation infrastructure and future supply reliability, recent pricing movements indicate reduced short-term volatility risk compared to previous years.
The recent softening in forward pricing creates an important opportunity for customers to reassess contract positions while wholesale market conditions remain comparatively favourable.
Victoria
Victoria continued to record some of the softest wholesale pricing conditions in the National Electricity Market throughout April and May, although forward prices did not decline as aggressively as some other mainland regions. Lower wind and solar generation over recent weeks has reduced some of the downward pressure typically seen in the Victorian market, particularly during periods that would normally experience strong renewable output.
Despite this, Victorian wholesale pricing still softened alongside the broader NEM as improved interconnector flows, lower overall market volatility, and increased battery participation across the grid continued to place downward pressure on pricing outcomes. Batteries have also continued to help smooth evening peak demand periods, reducing reliance on higher-cost firming generation during peak intervals.
Victoria remains the lowest-priced mainland region across FY27 wholesale contracts, and current market conditions continue to provide businesses with an opportunity to review longer-term energy procurement strategies while wholesale pricing remains subdued relative to historical averages.
South Australia
South Australia’s wholesale electricity market remained highly dynamic throughout April and May, however forward pricing softened materially alongside the broader NEM. Strong renewable generation and increasing battery storage participation have continued to improve system flexibility, particularly during evening demand peaks where batteries are increasingly helping smooth volatility and reduce extreme pricing events.
High renewable penetration has also contributed to softer daytime spot pricing outcomes, with frequent low and negative pricing intervals continuing to place downward pressure on average wholesale electricity prices across the state.
Despite South Australia remaining more exposed to volatility during periods of low renewable output or interconnector constraints, current wholesale pricing conditions are materially improved compared to previous years, making now an appropriate time for businesses to review market exposure and procurement timing.
