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Energy Market Update August

Victoria

Large Market:

Electricity rates in Victoria have remained fairly stable over the last month. However, power prices are likely to rise closer to summer.

The media are largely reporting how a likely El Nino weather event will impact energy prices for businesses, you can read our blog here.

The coal price cap that was implemented in December 2022, will disappear at the end of the year creating the perfect storm for price volatility.

Recommendation: With the likely El Nino weather event set to occur, it’s a good time to review electricity strategies options such as forward-contracting before prices could spike, especially if you are coming out of contract in the next 3-6 months.


Small Market:

Victorian businesses have been hit with electricity bill increases of up to 25-30% as a result of the revised Victorian Default Offer (VDO). Price increase notices would have arrived mid-to-late July and new pricing are now reflected on bills issued after 1 August.

In recent weeks, Choice Energy has been able to secure a 13% average saving for Victorian small businesses following these increases.

Recommendation: It’s a great time for small businesses to review their electricity agreements as Choice Energy is able to help reduce costs following the VDO increases.

New South Wales

Large Market:

In New South Wales, over the last few months, there are stable but higher prices in comparison to Victoria.

NSW’s largest power plant, Eraring, is scheduled to close in mid-2025, despite harsh criticism the closure should be postponed, including a recommendation provided in the Electricity Supply and Reliability Check Up, commissioned by the NSW Labor government.

Recommendation: With the Eraring coal power station closure being only two years away, if you're contract is set to expire before (or just after the closure), it is worth considering forward-contracting your next contract and securing rates now. Based on past coal-station closures, Choice Enegy anticipates the energy market will respond with volatility and these are not the conditions you want to be negotiating your new contract under.

Similarly, if your business's energy contract is set to expire in the coming months, we strongly encourage you to get in touch now to have greater negotiating power, rather than waiting until Summer.

Small Market:

New South Wales small businesses have now been impacted by electricity price increases, which for many businesses has been an increase of up to 22%. Choice Energy has been able to secure new energy retail contracts for affected businesses, delivering an average saving of 6% to shield them from the full brunt.

Recommendation: It’s a great time for small businesses to review their electricity agreements as Choice Energy is able to help reduce costs following the DMO increases.

Queensland

Large Market:

QLD electricity prices remain steady but high in comparison to Victoria. Callide C coal-fired power station in Central Queensland is still offline following it's May 2021 explosion and is not set to return until mid-2024, placing further pressure on the electricity grid.

Recommendation:Similar to other states, as we near summer, prices are likely to rise across the wholesale market, impacting large-market energy contracts. Choice Energy recommends to review your options now ahead of warmer weather.

Small Market:

In terms of small market rate increases, Queensland was one of the least affected areas. Most small businesses in Energex would now have received a new electricity bill reflecting the rate increases.

Recommendation:Choice Energy suggests running an assessment as there are some really sharp offers in and around Brisbane.

South Australia

Large Market:

South Australian prices are steady and over the last few months, more retailers are now pricing in the electricity market. This is good news as it creates greater competition forcing pricing negotiations and delivers greater competition for businesses.

Recommendation: SA’s electricity market is currently 31% gas generation. With the gas caps expiring on June 2025 it’s important that businesses forward contract their electricity contract before this time to mitigate the risk of the influences this cap has.


Small Market:

The electricity market for small businesss customers has been fairly stable. The 18% rate increase that SA businesses received as a result of the DMO increase came into effect at the start of July and will now be reflective of bills issued in August.

Recommendation: The mostcompetitive electricity offers in South Australia are around Adelaide CBD down towards Port Lincoln. If you are geogrpahically located elsewhere, get in touch and send us your latest electricity bill and price increase notice.

Tasmania

Large Market:

Tasmanian businesses face similar rates and stability as Victoria. However, power prices are likely to rise closer to summer.

Recommendation:

Whilst the cooler winter weather remains, it’s a good time to review electricity strategies options such as forward-contracting before prices spike.

Small Market:

Small market Tasmanian businesses have experienced rate increases of up to 11% recently. .

Recommendation:

Choice Energy encourages all businesses to get in touch for a complimentary energy assessment to see if your business is eligible for savings

Gas

For large market businesses, gas pricing remains unchanged over the last few months.

For small market businesses, many of Choice Energy's gas retail offerings have been pulled. Choice Energy is unable to assist small market businesses with their gas contract and and our best piece of advice is to go direct to an energy retailer.

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