Large Market Energy Update July 2025

July 23rd, 2025Written by James Hardgrove

Queensland

Electricity prices in Queensland remained relatively stable throughout Q4 2025. High levels of solar and wind generation during daylight hours led to oversupply and frequent negative spot prices. Unlike southern states, QLD experienced moderate electricity demand, helping to reduce upward pressure on prices. Domestic gas production continued to meet local demand, limiting price volatility. There were no major outages or network constraints during the quarter.

With prices holding steady, we recommend reviewing and planning ahead for contracts set to expire in the next 18 months.

New South Wales

NSW saw increased penetration of solar and wind generation, contributing to more volatile pricing and a rise in negative price intervals. Cooler weather during the quarter drove up electricity demand, leading to occasional price spikes. Despite some outages in coal and gas plants, the robust gas supply network prevented significant gas price increases. As with QLD, pricing has remained relatively stable, making it a good time to review energy contracts that are due to expire within the next 18 months.

If your energy contract expires within the next 18 months, now’s a good time to consider your options while pricing remains stable.

Victoria

Victoria experienced higher electricity demand during the cooler months, with lower renewable generation compared to QLD and NSW. This increased reliance on coal and gas-fired power stations, pushing up energy prices. Regional gas supply constraints and limited local production further added to volatility, while rising transport costs exacerbated the situation. Given these conditions, pricing remains volatile, and we advise reviewing your energy position carefully to determine whether to secure now or wait for a potential shift.

Given the volatility in pricing, now is the time to assess your energy strategy and decide if securing a rate now or waiting offers better value.

South Australia

South Australia faced tight electricity supply conditions due to low wind generation throughout the quarter. The state relied heavily on gas-fired generation when renewable output dipped, increasing gas demand and prices. Grid constraints also limited electricity imports from neighboring states, compounding local price volatility. Additionally, gas export commitments continued to tighten domestic supply. Despite these challenges, electricity pricing in SA is currently stable and near the lowest levels seen in the past two years, making it an ideal time to lock in a contract.

Prices are stable and at some of the best levels we’ve seen in two years. Don’t miss the opportunity to secure a favourable deal.

Tasmania

Tasmania remained heavily reliant on hydroelectricity, with water storage levels directly impacting generation capacity. Electricity demand remained low, generally keeping prices moderate, although dry periods with constrained hydro output led to occasional price spikes. The gas market had minimal influence due to negligible gas demand. With volatility tied closely to hydro conditions, it is recommended that businesses review their energy position and consider whether to secure now or monitor for better timing.

With current price volatility, it’s worth reviewing your energy position to assess the best time to lock in a contract.

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